Virginia 2021 - the upcoming electoral landscape
Virginia elects its governor the year after presidential elections. This year, the Democrats carried Virginia for Joe Biden by 10 points. Previously, elections for President that went strongly for one party were followed by a decisive showing by the opposite party in the Virginia governor’s election a year later. For this reason, many Democrats are concerned that the GOP may be in line to paint the governor’s mansion red in 2021, but that may not happen.
This year Virginia Republicans chose to nominate the governor’s candidate by convention rather than a primary. This decision immediately drew the ire of the Trumpist wing of the party, and its best known champion State Senator Amanda Chase. Senator Chase has often been described as “Trump in heels.” After the Dec. 14 electoral collage decision in favor of Joe Biden, Chase said “President Trump should declare martial law as recommended by General Flynn.” She accused the Democratic Party of “hating white people.” Chase announced that she will be running for governor as an Independent rather than a Republican. Indeed, she may be running against former House Speaker Kirk Cox, and a split in the conservative vote could pave the way for continued Democratic occupation of the governor’s mansion.
On the Democratic side, the picture is heavily influenced by the emergence of liberal suburban women and minority voters. This demographic drove the Biden victory in Virginia this November, bringing in huge majorities in places like Alexandria, Arlington, and Stafford. Two black women are in the running: Jenifer McClellan and Jenifer Carrol Foy. ‘
Jenifer McClellan is a corporate lawyer (for Verizon) who was first elected to the House of Delegates in 2005. She was elected to the Senate in 2017. She is the vice-chair of the Virginia Democratic Party.
Jenifer Carol Foy was first elected to the House Of Delegates in 2017. She graduated from Virginia Military Institute in 2003. She was a co-sponsor of the bill to ratify the Equal Rights Amendment. She did not support the constitutional amendment on re-redistricting saying she didn’t think it was appropriate to include a ‘sub-standard’ amendment in the Virginia Constitution.
A familiar face, former governor Terry McAuliffe has announced his candidacy for a new term as governor. It remains to be seen whether McAuliffe will gain the necessary support either in the western counties where his championship of environmentally destructive pipelines is unpopular, or in the northern suburbs.
An interesting possible candidate who stands apart from other Democrats is Lee Carter, the only avowed socialist currently serving in the General Assembly. Carter was the surprise winner in 2017 against a former Republican whip. He has made a career fighting against using state money for business incentive projects such as the half-billion dollars used to pursue Amazon to locate their headquarters in Crystal City.
As the nominating process proceeds in 2021, both the Republicans and the Democrats will be facing a similar dilemma —should they put forward a candidate that represents a moderate consensus or one that projects core values or constituencies. The choice is a perilous one for Republicans as many may recall the failed candidacy of Ken Cucinelli which very well could be repeated in 2021. An interesting field of candidates combined with the prospect of conservatives divided, means the off-year election curse for Democrats might well be lifted in the 2021 governor’s race.