Redistricting: How it will work and how it might not

This year Virginia voters approved a constitutional amendment that delegated the business of drawing legislative districts to a supposedly independent commission made up of eight sitting legislators and eight citizens. The commission will attempt to revise the current boundaries, which have been created in the time-honored process known as ‘gerrymandering,’ instead attempting to draw district boundaries in a way that does not make it more difficult for one party or another to prevail.

 Gerrymandering has become a far more determinative part of politics since computers allowed politicians to draw districts favorable to them with great precision. Following GOP victories in 2010, district lines in Virginia were re-drawn to heavily favor Republican legislators. Nelson County was divided between two districts: the northern one (the 20th) stretching all the way from Monterey to the Albemarle border near Herds, and the southern one (the 59th) wrapped around the southern edge of Lynchburg. It is not surprising that Democrats found it very difficult to compete in these districts.

The new commission set up to re-draw these lines will need to reach near consensus on a new map. For a plan to emerge from the commission, agreement must be reached by six out of eight of the legislator members and the same number of the citizen members. This means that a small minority of members can effectively block any plan from further consideration. Should this happen, the whole matter will be referred to the Virginia Supreme Court. 

Attempts to legislate further safeguards guaranteeing fairness in the selection of commission members failed in March when the House of Delegates and the Senate could not reconcile their versions of a bill. Notwithstanding this recommendation and the failure to refine the amendment, it passed in the November election, and legislative members were nominated later that month.

 Many Virginia Democrats objected to the amendment because they feared its vulnerability to partisan maneuvering would throw the entire question to a court thought to favor Republicans. The Democrats adopted a resolution at their virtual convention in June urging their members to not vote in favor of the amendment.

 If the scenario that some Democrats feared comes to pass, the Virginia Supreme Court will be wading into unfamiliar waters. Drawing up fair legislative districts is a hideously complicated matter that often requires extensive data and specialized skills. Political interests seeking to produce a loaded outcome in the past have had ample access to both, and the court, having little prior experience in these matters, will have its hands full trying to produce a balanced outcome that minimally satisfies everyone. The odds are it will appoint a “special master” to do the actual work, and all eyes will be on who it chooses for the task. 

It is possible that a suitable result can be obtained either from the commission reaching agreement, or a court-appointed expert doing the right thing and coming up with a fair map. However, as it stands, the process approved by the voters is riddled with opportunities for partisan influence, and the ultimate “decider” may decide to continue with another ten years of district lines to favor the party of his or her choosing.